By Clara
Nwachukwu
LAGOS —
As oil prices continue on the downward slide, Nigerian oil firms may be
producing at up to $5/barrel loss, as average production costs for independent
and marginal field producers is between $30 and $35/barrel.
Oil
prices, yesterday, resumed their free fall, with Brent crude, similar to
Nigeria’s sweet crude grade, falling 2.6 per cent to $31.34 a barrel following
a 10 per cent rise on Friday, while U.S. oil shed 95 cents to $31.24.
To
compound the producers’ woes, a significant proportion of what is produced is
lost to oil thieves and pipeline vandals, which they insist are even more
dangerous than the bearish run oil prices
Industry
chiefs, who spoke exclusively with Vanguard on phone, argued that the
turbulence in the international oil market deserves urgent attention.
Specifically, they insisted that the Federal Government needs to be talking
with Nigerian producers very fast, if it must save indigenous companies from
running aground and plunging the economy into deeper crisis than it is in
already.
Impact on
producers
Speaking on the impact of the oil crash on the producers, Chairman, Petroleum
Technology Association of Nigeria, PETAN, Mr. Emeka Ene, said:
“Current
price is below Nigeria’s average of between $30 and $35 per barrel. Most
marginal field producers are producing above $30/barrel, and with pipeline
vandalism activities, costs will shoot up by another $10/barrel, so oil production
now is not sustainable.”
Ene, who
spoke against the backdrop of oil crashing to 13-year lows of below $28/barrel
last week, noted that the bearish run may soon fizzle out, whether shale or
conventional oil is being produced at above $25/barrel. As such, the southward
run is not favourable to any producer.
He also
revealed that “a lot of Nigerian companies are out of work because they cannot
compete with the multinationals, so government needs to have a serious talk
with stakeholders in the industry.”
Oil
theft, pipeline vandalism
Whether oil prices go bullish soon or not, other stakeholders feel that the
benefits of the rise will be lost on Nigeria, if the government does not deal
decisively with the twin incidence of pipeline vandalism and oil theft.
The
President, Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists, NAPE, Mr. Nosa
Omorodion, maintained that “government needs to address the issue of oil theft
and pipeline vandalism very fast because, even if price stabilises tomorrow or
whenever, we will still not be able to reap the full benefits of that rise.”
He
further argued that “oil theft and vandalism remain recurring and very
worrisome because these issues are much bigger than oil slide, which is mostly
driven by speculation, while these activities affect planning and are more
cankerous than price slide. Operators are risking their assets including human
resources to produce the oil, only to have it stolen thereafter.”
Against
this backdrop, Omorodion, whose association is responsible for finding and
producing oil, revealed that NAPE is planning a national seminar this month end
to holistically address the issue of oil slide.
He said:
“We are going to assess the length and breadth of the oil and gas industry
because the price slide is not only affecting petroleum, but also other sectors
of the economy.”
Apart
from the impact on cost of production, the NAPE boss noted that “The current
price is affecting so many things, as nobody is drilling for exploration now,
and no one is thinking about fancy technology to boost production. Also,
exploration will suffer as no company is exploring for new wells to grow
reserves, and many small scale producers, which are mostly Nigerians, will shut
down.”
Going forward
Currently,
most producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC including the U.S., Saudi Arabia,
Russia, Iraq and a host of others are producing at optimal capacities, which
indicates that the downward glide may not let up soon. Also, some analysts have
predicted that price may glide to below $20 or even $10/per barrel before
rebounding.
Furthermore,
with Iran’s oil also up in the market and expected to be ramped up
systematically, compounded by the melt down in demand being fueled by the
crisis in China, crude prices are facing more pressures. But producers recognise
that the global economy is in need of some succour but differ on the best ways
to go about it.
Noting
that Nigerian service companies, who are the hardest hit by the crashing oil
prices and provide about 650 value services across the industry, Ene insisted
that Nigeria has the weapon in these companies to cushion the market turbulence
but has not fully appreciated it.
According
to him, “Nigeria has a thriving local oil industry, and if properly supported,
can push down cost of production to $10 per barrel. About 10 to 15 years ago,
industry cost was below $10 per barrel and nothing much had changed.
On his
part, Omorodion believes that now is the time for oil companies to be at the
most cost efficient by prioritising between wants and needs, while government
becomes more fiscally disciplined and diversifying the economy.
But Ene
argued that the solution is not in prescriptivism, like the majors calling for
as much as 40 percent cuts in cost of services thereby killing off the
companies, adding that government needs to identify and reduce unrealistic
economic toll gates.
In his
opinion, “The whole system is heated up, and cost of borrowing is very high. So
far, conversation has been restricted to major operators and has not included
the service companies driving operations in the industry.
“If we
must produce oil at $10/barrel, government needs to be talking to Nigerian
companies, who have invested in people and technology and are not repatriating
their profits.”
Furthermore,
he noted that a lot of the systemic costs being borne by indigenous firms
contribute to the high cost of production, such as what he described as
“Federal Government agents charging unrealistic charges like asking for
$10million for permits need to be looked into.”