A war between Iran, the United States, and Israel can disrupt global fuel supplies and trigger scarcity because Iran sits at the heart of the world’s energy production and shipping routes. One of the key factors is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20 % of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is transported by sea. When there is active conflict in the region, tanker traffic through this chokepoint can slow dramatically or even halt entirely due to safety concerns for ships, rising insurance costs, and military threats. This effectively reduces the global flow of oil and gas to major markets.
In addition, geopolitical tensions tend to make traders and countries factor in “supply risk premiums”—a kind of built‑in cost reflecting uncertainty about future oil deliveries. Even if physical supply isn’t immediately cut off, the mere threat of disruptions pushes global benchmark oil prices higher. Since petroleum products such as petrol (gasoline), diesel, and aviation fuel are refined from crude oil, rising crude prices quickly feed through to higher pump prices and tighter fuel availability.
Moreover, conflict can directly impact production. Iran itself is a major oil and gas producer, and escalated military attacks—especially those that affect energy infrastructure—can reduce output. Countries in the region may also reduce their own production in response to heightened risk, or export facilities may be damaged, further tightening global supplies.
For countries like Nigeria, which import refined fuel and are sensitive to global crude price shifts, these global supply disruptions can quickly translate into higher local fuel costs and scarcity at petrol stations, because international prices rise and foreign exchange costs increase.
